High-Conviction Signals
Insider Track Records and Win Rates
Past insider behavior can help rank current signals. Learn how to evaluate track record without overfitting.
Why historical behavior helps
An insider with repeated successful discretionary buys may deserve more attention than an insider with low follow-through history.
Track record can improve ranking quality when used as a probability input, not a guarantee.
How to measure responsibly
Evaluate outcomes over consistent windows, include both winners and losers, and control for transaction type.
Small sample sizes can be misleading, so pair win rate with confidence in data depth.
Where investors go wrong
Common mistakes include cherry-picking best outcomes or ignoring changing company conditions. Historical performance can degrade when the business narrative changes.
Use track record as a weighting feature inside a broader decision framework.
Frequently Asked Questions
How do I calculate insider win rate responsibly?
Use consistent forward windows and include winners and losers. Small sample sizes should be treated cautiously.
Can past insider success stop working?
Yes. Company conditions and market regimes change, so historical edge can fade. Track record should be one feature among several.
What is the biggest mistake with track record analysis?
Cherry-picking favorable outcomes without balanced samples. Robust evaluation needs full-cycle evidence.
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Next step
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